标签： 上海荤场子

A shares bottomed out and rebounded.

On January 23, the three major indexes of the market opened lower and went higher, and rebounded across the board. After rising rapidly in the afternoon, the increase was further expanded. Among them, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index both rose more than 1.2%.

Regarding the rebound of the market on Tuesday, the chief strategist of a securities firm told The Paper: "There was no obvious direct negative in the market before, and the adjustment was more driven by emotions. Under the influence of good news, the market sentiment has also eased. "

"For the current market position, I still think that it should have bottomed out in the short term. There is little market risk before the Spring Festival. Recently, I added some funds." The chief strategist of the brokerage firm said with a smile.

The chief investment officer of a brokerage firm in Shanghai also told the The Paper reporter: "It should be said that the current position is completely pessimistic, and there is a bigger rebound below this position. The faster it falls, the faster it will rebound."

Technically, zhaowei, an analyst at Founder Securities, analyzed in the research report on January 23rd that there is still a rebound demand in the short-term market, which is expected to challenge the pressure on the 5th line technically. Among them, whether it can challenge and cross the 5-day line and whether the quantity can be released is the key.

Bottom rebound

According to Great Wisdom VIP, as of the close of January 23rd, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.53% to 2,770.98 points; The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.01% to 749.74 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.38% to 8596.28 points; The growth enterprise market index rose 1.24% to 1687.61 points.

On the disk, after several consecutive days of shocks, A shares in the sector ushered in a long-lost general increase. Under the first-class industry classification of Shenwan, 27 of the 31 sub-sectors are floating red, and only banks, commercial retail, food and beverage and textile and apparel have fallen slightly.

Among them, the media sector surged more than 3.5% throughout the day, the coal and computer sectors rose more than 2%, and communications, non-bank finance, real estate and national defense industries all rose more than 1%.

"On the whole, the quantity can shrink but the structural differentiation has decreased. Big tickets are stronger than small tickets, and blue chips are stronger than growth. Risk appetite increased slightly and market confidence was boosted, which was the main feature of Tuesday (January 23). " Zhaowei said.

For the rebound of the market, many interviewees mentioned the positive impact of the news in the capital market.

"The NPC attaches great importance to the capital market, and the market speculates that there may be some new policies on the capital market, which will boost the market sentiment." The chief investment officer of the above brokerage said.

Zhaowei also pointed out that the regular meeting of the National People’s Congress indicated that more powerful and effective measures should be taken to stabilize the market and confidence, and it was announced that the medium and long-term capital would enter the market in the next step. This is undoubtedly a heavy positive signal in the recent depressed capital market, which means that a powerful rescue policy will be introduced soon. Under the influence of positive news, the market bottomed out on Tuesday.

On January 22nd, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council presided over the the State Council executive meeting to listen to the report on the operation of the capital market and work considerations. The meeting stressed that it is necessary to further improve the basic system of the capital market, pay more attention to the dynamic balance of investment and financing, vigorously improve the quality and investment value of listed companies, increase the medium and long-term capital entering the market, and enhance the internal stability of the market. We should take more effective measures to stabilize the market and confidence.

On January 23rd, Yi Huiman, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of the CSRC, presided over the (enlarged) meeting of the Party Committee. The meeting stressed that efforts should be made to maintain the stable operation of the capital market. We will persist in striving for stability and promoting stability through progress, put the stable operation of the capital market in a more prominent position, and strive to stabilize the market and stabilize confidence. Vigorously improve the quality and investment value of listed companies, and build a valuation system of listed companies with China characteristics. Deepen the reform of the investment side, increase the intensity of medium and long-term capital entering the market, promote the dynamic balance of investment and financing, and continuously enhance the internal stability of the stock market.

Keep a positive attitude, there is still a rebound requirement on the technical side.

As the market rebounds, what will A shares do next?

"In the short term, the current mood of the market has reached the bottom, and the current position is extremely cost-effective. Therefore, there is no need to be pessimistic in this position in the market. " The chief investment officer of the aforementioned brokerage firm said.

Zhaowei also pointed out that although the rebound of the market on Tuesday (January 23rd) was still insufficient, it was because the pressure around 2863 was still relatively high, which required a time-space transformation process. At present, the market’s common expectation of confidence return route has gradually become clear, and the market has never fallen for more than five consecutive quarters. Next, investors can keep a positive attitude and wait for the introduction of policy tools for the current market.

Technically, zhaowei said that after the market opened lower on Tuesday (January 23), it fluctuated sharply around the previous closing point, gradually rose in the afternoon, and closed in red, showing a trend of price increase and volume decrease. All the moving averages were arranged short, and the volume and price of price increase and volume decrease deviated from the trend, and it will be repeated in short-term intraday trading.

"However, the market still deviates from the 5-day trend, which is technically oversold. In addition, the SKD indicator of the daily line continues to deviate from the bottom three times, and there is still a rebound requirement in the short-term session. Whether the 5-day line can be broken and whether the quantity can be released is the key. At the same time, the technical indicators of the time-sharing chart show that the 15-minute MACD indicator continues to strengthen, the 30-minute MACD indicator is golden, and there are rebound requirements in the short-term session. " Zhaowei pointed out.

Zhaowei further pointed out that, on the whole, there is still a demand for rebound in the short-term market, which is technically expected to challenge the pressure on the 5th line. Whether it can challenge and cross the 5th line and whether the quantity can be released is the key. If the quantity can be released again, 2724 points will be the stage low regardless of the ups and downs; If the quantity can be released effectively, 2724 points can not be confirmed as the stage low regardless of the ups and downs.

"At present, the point is low enough, and stabilization is something that can happen at any time." Another brokerage investment Gu said that there are three signals for the market to stop falling and stabilize. First, the form must be out of the reverse form, and it is the most basic condition to create a physical heavy-duty zhongyang line to reverse the heavy-duty zhongyin on Monday. Second, the market sentiment must be reversed. We can observe whether the position of the yellow and white lines is switched at the same time when the yellow and white lines are rising together on the time-sharing chart, and whether the yellow line is running above the white line (the increase of individual stocks exceeds the index). The third is to see if there is a leading sector with strong market influence, which can not only drive the index but also drive the market popularity. For example, brokers known as bull market engines are easy to activate the market and activate the Shanghai Composite Index once they start at a low level.

In terms of allocation, zhaowei suggested that investors should watch more and move less in operation, those who are light positions should wait and see, those who are heavy positions should adjust their position structure, pay attention to new energy sources and brokers on dips, and avoid junk stocks and stocks with high share prices that are at risk of making up for losses.

　　Investment of R&D funds from 1953 to 2017

　　Sharp tools make good work. Investment in science and technology is the necessary condition and basic guarantee for scientific and technological progress. Since the founding of New China 70 years ago, China has gradually established a national science and technology investment system that adapts to the characteristics of the socialist market economy system.

　　"The continuous improvement of the national science and technology investment system and the sustained and rapid growth of research and development (R&D) funds have stimulated the vitality of scientific and technological innovation in the whole society and strongly supported the country’s scientific and technological progress and rapid and stable economic and social development." Zhu Yingchun, deputy director of the Institute of Science and Technology Statistics and Analysis of the China Academy of Science and Technology Development Strategy, said in an interview with the Science and Technology Daily reporter.

　　A historic breakthrough was achieved in the scale and intensity of R&D funds.

　　The R&D expenditure of the whole society is an important component of the national (regional) investment in science and technology, an important indicator to measure the national (regional) investment in science and technology, and an important indicator to observe and analyze the national (regional) scientific and technological development strength and competitiveness.

　　Since the founding of New China, especially since the reform and opening up, with the promulgation and implementation of various national economic policies and science and technology policies and the enhancement of the country’s comprehensive national strength, the investment in science and technology in the whole society has increased rapidly, and the scale and intensity of R&D funds have achieved a historic breakthrough.

　　Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2018, China’s R&D expenditure reached 1,967.79 billion yuan, 123 times that of 1991, from 1991— In 2018, the average annual growth rate was 19.5%, far exceeding the average annual growth rate of GDP at current prices in the same period.

　　At the same time, the investment intensity of R&D funds has hit record highs, reaching 2% for the first time in 2013 and 2.19% in 2018, exceeding the average level of the 15 EU countries. According to the exchange rate, China has become the second largest R&D investment country in the world after the United States, providing a strong financial guarantee for the development of science and technology.

　　China’s national financial expenditure on science and technology increased from 60 million yuan in 1953 to 951.82 billion yuan in 2018. 2005— In 2010, the national fiscal expenditure on science and technology grew fastest, with an average annual growth rate of more than 20%. In 2011, the growth rate began to decline, and in 2018, it increased by 13.5% over the previous year, setting a record high since 2013.

　　"The national financial expenditure on science and technology has played a key role in driving the whole society’s R&D investment and leading the national strategic orientation, providing a strong guarantee for scientific and technological innovation." Zhu Yingchun pointed out.

　　In Zhu Yingchun’s view, the investment in science and technology has increased rapidly, and the scale and intensity of R&D funds have achieved a historic breakthrough, which is in line with the Outline of the National Medium-and Long-term Science and Technology Development Plan (2006— The promulgation and implementation of "2020)", especially since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, various departments and localities have taken active measures, and the whole society has formed a consensus on attaching importance to and supporting innovation.

　　From different regions, the performance of scientific and technological investment in some places is eye-catching. In 2017, the fiscal expenditure on science and technology in seven regions including Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shanghai exceeded 20 billion yuan. The local fiscal expenditure on science and technology in 11 provinces (cities) accounted for more than 2% of the local fiscal expenditure, and Guangdong, Shanghai and Beijing all exceeded 5%.

　　It is worth mentioning that in 2018, the number of regions with R&D investment intensity greater than 2% increased to 11, among which the R&D investment intensity in Beijing reached a record high of 6.17%.

　　Enterprises become the main force supporting the growth of R&D investment.

　　Since the reform and opening up, China has actively guided other social capitals to increase their support for innovation through direct and indirect financial investment. Enterprise funds have gradually become an important source of funds for the whole society to invest in R&D funds.

　　"In recent years, the source structure of R&D funds has been further optimized, and the dominant position of enterprise innovation has been further highlighted. The proportion of corporate funds in R&D funds increased from 60.1% in 2003 to 76.5% in 2017. " Zhu Yingchun believes that this is mainly due to the improvement and implementation of the R&D expenses plus deduction policy, the tax relief policy for high-tech enterprises and the accelerated depreciation policy for fixed assets, which greatly mobilized the enthusiasm of enterprises for R&D activities. As the main body of technological innovation, enterprises have become the main force supporting the growth of R&D investment in China in recent years.

　　Enterprises are not only the main body of investment in R&D funds, but also the main body of implementation. From the perspective of expenditure structure, the proportion of R&D expenditure of Chinese enterprises in the total social R&D expenditure has increased from about 60.0% in 2000 to 77.4% in 2018.

　　According to statistics, in 2017, the number of enterprises enjoying R&D expenses plus tax reduction and exemption for industries above designated size and tax reduction and exemption for high-tech enterprises reached 24,400 and 24,200 respectively, 3.3 times and 3.5 times that of 2009 respectively, and the amount of tax reduction and exemption reached 57 billion yuan and 106.2 billion yuan respectively, which played a positive role in encouraging and guiding enterprises to carry out R&D activities.

　　In 2018, the basic research funds broke through the 100 billion yuan mark for the first time.

　　Data from the Statistical Bulletin of National Science and Technology Investment in 2018 (hereinafter referred to as the Bulletin) show that in 2018, China invested a total of 1,967.79 billion yuan in R&D, an increase of 207.18 billion yuan or 11.8% over the previous year. Among them, the basic research funds exceeded 100 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 109.04 billion yuan, keeping pace with the investment in research and development.

　　Li Yin, a statistician of the Department of Social Sciences and Literature of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that the funds for basic research exceeded 100 billion yuan, and all three subjects achieved rapid growth. The funds for basic research in institutions of higher learning, government-owned research institutions and enterprises were 58.99 billion yuan, 42.31 billion yuan and 3.35 billion yuan respectively, up by 11.1%, 10.1% and 15.7% respectively over the previous year. Among them, colleges and universities contribute 51.1% to the growth of basic research funds in the whole society, and they are the main bodies to carry out basic research.

　　According to Lv Wei, a researcher in the Innovation and Development Research Department of the State Council Development Research Center, the investment in basic research in China has been increasing continuously in recent years, which is not only related to the state’s attention, but also an inevitable requirement for the development of technological innovation capability to the stage of "three runs coexist". The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed that we should aim at the forefront of world science and technology, strengthen basic research, and achieve a major breakthrough in forward-looking basic research and leading original achievements.

　　Over the past 70 years, China has made remarkable progress in science and technology investment. "However, it should still be noted that compared with the goal of deepening the supply-side structural reform and building a world science and technology power, the investment intensity of R&D funds in China needs to be rapidly improved." Zhu Yingchun pointed out.

　　Judging from the cumulative investment, there is still a big gap between the total investment of R&D funds in China and the United States and Japan since 1991. Science and technology investment has a strong cyclical accumulation effect, and the appearance of scientific and technological innovation effect depends on long-term investment and continuous accumulation. When the innovation ability changes from "tracking, paralleling and leading" to "paralleling" and "leading", it still needs the support of a lot of scientific and technological investment to achieve key core technological breakthroughs.

　　At the same time, problems such as unbalanced investment structure of R&D funds have yet to be solved. For example, the single source of funds for basic research. The proportion of basic research funds in China has been around 5% for a long time, which is lower than 15% in developed countries & mdash; The general level of 20%; Basic research is highly dependent on the central financial input, and local and enterprises have insufficient investment in basic research.

　　In this regard, Zhu Yingchun suggested that in the future, we should speed up the construction of a diversified investment system, strengthen the comprehensive design of fiscal, taxation, financial and other policies, form an organic policy system, and further guide venture capital, charitable donations, and universities’ own funds to invest in R&D activities. (Reporter Tang Ting)