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Author: Walker
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Editor’s note: As for ATACMS missiles, we have been following the article "The red line of military aid is broken, and the army tactical missiles attack. How powerful is it?" Is there enough inventory? "ATACMS got a blood," Taurus "will be on the road, can the Kerch Bridge be saved? ",this missile is actually the equipment developed by the US military decades ago, and it is not new at all, but it still plays an important role on the battlefield in Russia and Ukraine.Today, Walker, a senior author of this issue, collected relevant war cases to show you what dazzling achievements it has made.
On November 17, 2024, foreign media suddenly reported that the U.S. Joe Biden’s government, which had become the left-behind government after the election, had lifted Ukraine’s ban on using American aid weapons to attack deep targets in Russia.
■ The Biden administration of the United States revealed that it has lifted the ban on US aid weapons against deep targets in Russia.
The Ukrainian side also acted quickly. Only two days later, in the early morning of November 19th, the Ukrainian army launched a long-range strike against the arsenal of the 1046th Logistics Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense near Karachev, Bryansk, Russia. It is about 115 kilometers away from the nearest Ukrainian border. It is reported that the Ukrainian army has launched six American-aided ATACMS Army tactical missiles, and at least 12 secondary explosions have occurred in the attacked Russian arsenal, which can prove that the attack has been successful at least to some extent.
■ It is said that the Ukrainian army launched a video screenshot of ATACMS against targets in Russia.
November 19th coincides with the 1,000th day of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, so this long-range strike by the Ukrainian army is of symbolic significance.
In fact, after receiving ATACMS from the United States in October 2023, the Ukrainian army quickly put it into actual combat, attacked the important targets of the Russian army, and achieved many major results. Let’s list some below, so that we can better understand the actual combat effect of this weapon.
First, the airport attack in October 2023
On October 17, 2023, Russian troops were attacked at two airports in the port city of the Azov Sea in southern Ukraine and Lugansk in eastern Ukraine, and suffered heavy losses. Subsequent live pictures and all parties confirmed that this was ATACMS’ first attack on the battlefield in Ukraine.
The attack revealed a lot of information for us.
Different from the past, this time the Americans confirmed to the outside world after the attack that they had provided ATACMS Army tactical missiles to Ukraine. This is, of course, to avoid alarming others and try to ensure ATACMS’ success in the first battle in Ukraine. At the same time, it also proves the importance of this kind of weapon from the side-other weapons provided by the United States to Ukraine have not received such "treatment".
■ As can be seen in the photos that flowed out afterwards, the Russian Ka -52 helicopter gunship stationed at the airport was covered with traces of being hit by cluster munitions.
The war report issued by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence said that "Operation Dragonfly" destroyed nine Russian helicopters, an anti-aircraft missile launcher, an ammunition depot and several airport special vehicles at midnight on October 17th, and damaged the airport runway. However, the actual losses of the Russian army are likely to far exceed this number.
According to the analysis of satellite images after the attack, 15 Russian helicopters may have been damaged at Berdyansk airport and 6 helicopters may have been lost at Lugansk airport, which makes the total number of destroyed/damaged Russian helicopters possibly reach 21, which is more than twice the number listed in the Ukrainian army battle report. This may also be the biggest loss suffered by the Russian air force in a single day since the war.
■ Satellite images of Berdyansk Airport taken on October 19, 2023 show that as many as 15 Russian helicopters may be destroyed or damaged.
■ Satellite images of Lugansk Airport taken on October 18, 2023 show that six Russian helicopters may have been destroyed or damaged.
It can be seen that the Ukrainian army used the long-range large-scale cluster munitions projection capability provided by ATACMS to attack various military assets that the Russian army stayed and deployed at the airport.
According to the photos of ATACMS missile wreckage on the spot, the missile used by Ukrainian military to launch the attack is the oldest Atacms Block I (MGM-140a), which belongs to the last batch of missiles of this type produced in 1996, with a maximum range of 165 kilometers. The warhead contains 950 M74 anti-personnel/anti-equipment submunitions.
■ It is said that the ATACMS missile remains were found at the scene, and the visible model is MGM-140A, which was produced in the 10th week of 1996.
In fact, these missiles have already expired, belonging to the earliest batch of more than 1,200 expired ATACMS stocks in the US military arsenal that have not been refurbished. It shows that when the US military provided the first batch of ATACMS assistance to Ukrainians, it did not use its own active weapons, but used the battlefield in Ukraine to "destock" in disguise, thus saving a lot of costs for refurbishing missiles.
This is consistent with the analysis of the number of ATACMS that the United States can provide to Ukraine in the second part of the report. However, it needs to be clarified that the active ATACMS of the US military no longer include cluster munitions warheads, but all of them are changed to single warheads. If the Ukrainian army wants to use cluster munitions to launch attacks, it can only consider those ATACMS that have expired.
■ It is said to be the M74 submunition dud scattered by ATACMS cluster munition warhead.
This practice is actually not uncommon, and it can be regarded as a routine operation of foreign military aid. At present, Israel, a hot spot in the world, has received many similar weapons in military assistance in previous Middle East wars. How to give full play to them depends on the recipient’s own ability.
From another point of view, these missiles, which were produced nearly 30 years ago, can be hit as soon as they arrive, and they can be hit accurately, with amazing results. It is also the best advertisement made by the American Military Industry Group.
■ It is said that the Ukrainian army launched a video screenshot of ATACMS.
In this war case, there are obviously serious problems in the Russian military’s response. Because it is no secret that the United States will provide ATACMS to Ukraine, the signs that it will debut in September are quite obvious. Moreover, the airport in Berdyansk has long been targeted by the Ukrainian army. It is the main base of the Ka -52 armed helicopter that poses a great threat to the Ukrainian armored forces on the southern front. It can be said that it is a thorn in the side of the Ukrainian army. However, the Russian army still placed many helicopters on the airport runway in the open air as usual, and did not think of evacuation until after being attacked, which was a typical "better late than never".
■ After the attack, the Russian army evacuated all the helicopters at Lugansk airport.
Second, the airport attack in April 2024
Because the Pentagon secretly provided Ukraine with a batch of new ATACMS in the military aid on March 12, 2024, the Ukrainian army seized the opportunity to launch a relatively large-scale ATACMS missile attack on the Russian army’s Jankoy Air Force Base in Crimea from the night of April 17 to the early hours of April 18 before the US Congress passed the aid bill.
The air base is about 150 kilometers away from the front line. It is the main starting point for the Russian air force to support the battlefield in southern Ukraine and an important logistics hub for the Russian army. According to previous reports, the Russian Air Force stationed more than a dozen Ka -52 alligator and Mi -28 Catastrophe helicopter gunships here, as well as four Su -25 Frog Foot attack aircraft.
■ The location of Jankoy Air Force Base.
In order to protect this important air base, the Russian army also deployed S-400 or S-300 ground air defense missile systems here. Through the radar and missile coverage of the air defense system, the Russian army can observe and control the activities of the Ukrainian army in the airspace of southern Ukraine from here.
However, these ground-based air defense missile systems are the first targets of the Ukrainian attack. According to Ukrainian sources, the attack destroyed four S-400 or 300 air defense missile launchers, three radars of the air defense missile system, an air defense missile system control station and some other facilities. According to sources from Russia, the Ukrainian army used a total of 12 ATACMS in this attack, which were divided into two groups to attack the airport. The first group had seven missiles and the second group had five missiles. The Ukrainian army still uses ATACMS missiles with cluster munitions. Judging from the pictures of the wreckage on the scene, it is likely to be the same type of missiles used in the attack in October 2023, and both are the oldest expired MGM-140A in the US military inventory.
■ Satellite images taken on April 19, 2024 showed that several components of the air defense system at Jankoy Air Force Base were destroyed after the Ukrainian army attacked with ATACMS.
Based on the analysis of live video, photos and satellite images taken in the daytime the next day, the above results are basically in line with the actual situation. The video released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence shows that at least 7-8 ATACMS missiles have been launched. As can be seen from the video screenshots taken at the scene afterwards, at least three launch vehicles of S-400 or 300 air defense missile systems were burned. On the high-resolution satellite image taken during the daytime on April 18th, it can be seen that at least four main components of the air defense missile system deployed in the southern area of the airport were hit and burned.
■ Screenshots of live video that flowed out afterwards showed that at least three launch vehicles of S-400 or 300 air defense missile systems were burned.
It can also be seen from the images of Fire Information Resource Management System (FIRMS), which provides close to real-time fire data through on-orbit satellite infrared sensing technology, that there were at least six fires at the Jankoy Air Force Base in Crimea at the time of the attack.
■ The "Fire Information Resource Management System" shows that there were six fires at Zhankoy Air Force Base during the ATACMS attack.
In addition to the S-400 or 300 anti-aircraft missile positions, two aprons on the north side of the base were also attacked. In addition, around the six aprons on the easternmost side of the base, there are also traces of being attacked by cluster munitions. Other large-scale scorch marks nearby may belong to the short-range air defense system deployed at the airport, such as "Armor -S1".
■ There are also a large number of burnt marks on the ground on the north side of the base, which may belong to other short-range air defense systems deployed at the airport.
Although the aircraft damaged by ATACMS’s attack can hardly be seen on satellite images, it does not rule out that the Russian army has removed them at the first time, so as to avoid the Ukrainian army and the outside world having the opportunity to analyze the attack effect more accurately.
On the evening of April 29th, the Ukrainian army used ATACMS to attack the military targets of Jankoy Air Base and Simferopol in Crimea. It was confirmed by satellite images that another S-400 or 300 air defense missile system deployed at Jankoy Air Force Base was hit. The Russian army then removed all the S-400 or 300 air defense missile systems from the airport.
■ On the night of April 29, 2024, the Ukrainian army once again used ATACMS to launch an attack on the Jankoy Air Force Base in Crimea and the capital Simferopol.
It is worth noting that Simferopol is also more than 200 kilometers away from the nearest front line, so it can be inferred that the Ukrainian army has begun to use the long-range ATACMS provided by the United States.
3. Attacking the assembly point of troops in May 2024
The video streaming on the Internet on May 1, 2024 confirmed that the Ukrainian army used ATACMS to attack a Russian assembly site or training ground in Lugansk State in the east. This location is located near Kuban town, about 80 kilometers away from the front line.
■ Cluster munitions loaded by ■ATACMS caused a large-scale explosion at the scene.
According to the video taken by the surveillance drone, about hundreds of Russian troops and at least three armored vehicles assembled there, and then about four ATACMS carrying cluster munitions hit this area, one of which may not have exploded, and at least one ATACMS directly covered the assembled Russian troops in the video, but the specific casualties are still unclear.
■ The surveillance drone photographed that the Russian army was gathering locally.
Fourth, the airport attack in May 2024
In the early morning of May 15th, 2024, the Russian Belbek Air Force Base on the Crimean Peninsula was attacked by ATACMS launched by the Ukrainian army, which was near Sevastopol, the home port of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and about 230 kilometers away from Hellson. Some Russian media also speculated that the Ukrainian army launched ATACMS from the Ukrainian-Romanian border in the direction of Snake Island.
■ Rybar, a famous Russian military telegraph channel, speculated that the Ukrainian army might launch ATACMS from two directions to attack Belbek Air Force Base.
The Fire Information Resource Management System (FIRMS) of NASA monitored the fire at Belbek Air Force Base in space, which coincided with the attack time of ATACMS.
■ The fire information resource management system shows the fire at Belbek Air Force Base.
■ Unexploded submunitions carried by ATACMS warhead were found in the relevant area after dawn.
Follow-up information shows that a set of S-400 ground air defense missile system 92N6E radar set up by Russian army here was destroyed.
■ Destroyed S-400 air defense system 92N6E radar wreckage.
■ This is an intact S-400 air defense system 92N6 radar vehicle.
In addition to this radar, the losses of the Russian army also include the fuel and lubricating oil storage facilities at the airport and two S-400 air defense system launchers. Two other MIG -31 fighters were destroyed and three Su -27 fighters were damaged. Seven soldiers from the 27th Mixed Aviation Division and the 31st Air Defense Division were killed and 12 others were injured.
■ Satellite images of Belbek Air Force Base taken after the attack showed that at least two MiG -31 fighters were destroyed.
5. Attacking the Sevastopol military port in May 2024.
In the early morning of May 19th, 2024, after attacking the air defense position of Belbek Air Force Base near Sevastopol, Crimea, the Ukrainian army launched a long-range strike against the Russian Black Sea Fleet warships in the military port.
In this round of attack, the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s 22,800 Karakurt-class frigate "Cyclone" (633) was attacked by two ATACMS. Six people were killed, 11 were injured and the warship was sunk.
■ The sunken Russian Black Sea Fleet "Cyclone" (633) small frigate.
The sinking of the warship shows that the Ukrainian army has obtained ATACMS with a single warhead instead of cluster munitions. This warhead is actually the WDU-18/B high-penetration bursting disc warhead of the U.S. Navy’s Harpoon anti-ship missile, which weighs about 227 kilograms and contains about 98 kilograms of DESTEX high explosive, which is quite destructive to small frigates.
■ Scene photos of the small frigate "Cyclone" (633) when it was hit.
6. Attacking air defense positions in May 2024
At about 12: 50 noon on May 22, 2024, the Ukrainian army attacked the Russian S-400 air defense system position near the Mospines airport in Donetsk with five ATACMS.
■ Schematic diagram of the specific location of the attacked Russian S-400 air defense position. It’s about 64 kilometers from the front.
On the attacked S-400 air defense position, two transmitters were destroyed, one transmitter was damaged, one 96L6E radar was destroyed, and the 55K6E command center of the S-400 system was destroyed.
■ S-400 system 96L6E radar vehicle destroyed by ATACMS attack.
■ S-400 system transmitter destroyed by ATACMS attack.
Interestingly, the Russian S-400 air defense system was trying to intercept it when it was attacked. It seems that the interception was not successful, and this S-400 system was hit and destroyed by ATACMS. This also effectively debunked the war report that the Russian Ministry of Defense has repeatedly claimed to successfully intercept ATACMS.
■ The Russian S-400 air defense system desperately launched missiles to try to intercept ATACMS, but it was finally hit and destroyed by the latter’s cluster munitions.
tag
In fact, there are still many actual combat cases about ATACMS in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. Due to the limitation of space, I won’t list them all here. If you know any other combat cases, please leave a message in the comment area and let the editors select them.
From the performance of these examples, it can be seen that the Ukrainian army has already had the ability to use this weapon continuously and launch a large-scale, long-range, rapid and lethal precision strike against Russian deep targets.
At the same time, the fact that several airports and other important targets have been hit by ATACMS, or even the air defense missile system used to protect airports has been directly hit, also shows that although the Russian air defense radar can easily find ATACMS with its flying apex height of about 50 kilometers and non-stealth design, its air defense system, including the most advanced S-300/400 ground-based air defense missile system, cannot effectively intercept ATACMS.
■ The maximum range of ■ATACMS is about 300 kilometers, which will seriously threaten many military targets in Russia, especially important ammunition depots, logistics nodes and command and communication centers.
Russian military logistics has always been one of its most obvious shortcomings. In the summer of 2022, after the "Haima" rocket entered Ukraine, it was through the precise attack on Russian ammunition logistics nodes and headquarters that the battlefield situation was reversed. Since then, the Russian army has been forced to move these important facilities backward or even put them in its own territory, which has affected its own supply efficiency.
The United States’ release of restrictions on Ukrainian troops’ use of ATACMS to attack Russian deep targets will further weaken the Russian military’s logistics capabilities, thus having a far-reaching impact on the war situation.
The author has something to say.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, WeChat official account, the "armored shovel historian", has been silently tracking and recording the whole process of the war. We believe that there are not many media outlets in China that can make this work as solid, detailed and comprehensive as ours. With these raw materials, we can make an in-depth and reliable analysis of the situation. I hope our hard work can get everyone’s recognition and support, thank you!
Extended reading:
The red line of military aid was broken, and the army tactical missiles attacked. How powerful was it? Is there enough inventory?
ATACMS gets a blood, "Taurus" will be on the road, can Kerch Bridge be saved?
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Walker
Boiling wine talks about the battlefield, and the keyboard talks about the soldiers. Skynet of land, sea and air, heroic words are weak and strong. A free fake army fan, loves the development of weapons driven by technology, pays attention to the game of great powers in geographical evolution, is obsessed with the military strategy of confrontation between the two armies, and explores the good and evil of human nature behind the war.
It’s not easy to be original. You’d better look at it if you order it.
