标签： 爱上海

　　CCTV News:The Central Meteorological Observatory issued a weather bulletin. It is estimated that there will be moderate to heavy rain in the central and western Yunnan and southeastern Tibet from the night of the 14th to the 15th, with heavy rain in the local area and sleet or snow in high-altitude mountainous areas. Details are as follows:

　　1. Moderate rain or heavy rain occurred in parts of Guangdong, Hainan and other places

　　During the day, moderate rain or heavy rain occurred in parts of southern Yunnan, southwestern Guangdong and southeastern Hainan Island, and local rainstorms (50-71 mm) occurred in Wanning and Qiongzhong, Hainan.

　　Second, the key weather forecast

　　1. There is still strong rainfall in Yunnan and other places.

　　From the night of 14th to 15th, there was moderate to heavy rain in central and western Yunnan and southeastern Tibet, with heavy rain in the local area and sleet or snow in high-altitude mountainous areas. In addition, from the 16th to the 17th, there were moderate to heavy rains and local heavy rains in southern Jianghuai, southern Jianghan, most of the south of the Yangtze River and northern South China. There are small to moderate rains in the south of Northeast China and eastern North China, accompanied by strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.

　　2. There will be high temperature in parts of Huanghuai in North China.

　　From 15th to 17th, there was high temperature of 35℃ in southern Beijing, Tianjin, central and southern Hebei, central and western Henan, northern Shandong and other places, and the temperature in some parts of northern Shandong could reach above 37℃.

　　Third, the specific forecast for the next three days

　　From 20: 00 on May 14th to 20: 00 on May 15th,There are moderate to heavy rains in parts of southeastern Tibet, central and western Yunnan, and southwestern Sichuan. Among them, there are heavy rains (50-70 mm) in parts of southeastern Tibet and western Yunnan. There are 4 ~ 6 winds in parts of northeastern Inner Mongolia and Hexi in Gansu (see Figure 1).

Figure 1 National Precipitation Forecast Chart (20: 00 May 14-20: 00 May 15)

　　From 20: 00 on May 15th to 20: 00 on May 16th,There are moderate to heavy rains in parts of eastern Jianghan, northern Jiangnan, southeastern Southwest and southern Tibet, among which there are heavy rains (50-70 mm) in parts of eastern and southern Hubei and northern Hunan. There are 4 ~ 5 winds in parts of southeastern and northwestern Inner Mongolia, southwestern Heilongjiang, northern Zhejiang and southeastern Yunnan (see Figure 2).

Figure 2 National Precipitation Forecast Chart (20: 00 May 15-20: 00 May 16)

　　From 20: 00 on May 16th to 20: 00 on May 17th,There are moderate to heavy rains in the eastern and western parts of Northeast China, the eastern and western parts of Jianghuai, the northern and central parts of Jiangnan and southern Tibet, among which there are heavy rains (50-60 mm) in parts of southern Jiangsu, Shanghai and northern Zhejiang (see Figure 3).

Figure 3 National Precipitation Forecast Chart (20: 00 May 16-20: 00 May 17)

　　Fourth, the impact and concern

　　1. Pay attention to the strong precipitation in western Yunnan and southeastern Tibet on the 15th to prevent secondary disasters caused by local heavy precipitation;

　　2. Pay attention to the high temperature weather in North China, Huanghuai and other places from 15 to 17;

　　3.16-17 rainfall process and its influence in Jiangnan and South China;

　　4. Pay attention to the development trend of drought in Yunnan;

　　5. Spring ploughing and spring sowing meteorological service.

A shares bottomed out and rebounded.

On January 23, the three major indexes of the market opened lower and went higher, and rebounded across the board. After rising rapidly in the afternoon, the increase was further expanded. Among them, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index both rose more than 1.2%.

Regarding the rebound of the market on Tuesday, the chief strategist of a securities firm told The Paper: "There was no obvious direct negative in the market before, and the adjustment was more driven by emotions. Under the influence of good news, the market sentiment has also eased. "

"For the current market position, I still think that it should have bottomed out in the short term. There is little market risk before the Spring Festival. Recently, I added some funds." The chief strategist of the brokerage firm said with a smile.

The chief investment officer of a brokerage firm in Shanghai also told the The Paper reporter: "It should be said that the current position is completely pessimistic, and there is a bigger rebound below this position. The faster it falls, the faster it will rebound."

Technically, zhaowei, an analyst at Founder Securities, analyzed in the research report on January 23rd that there is still a rebound demand in the short-term market, which is expected to challenge the pressure on the 5th line technically. Among them, whether it can challenge and cross the 5-day line and whether the quantity can be released is the key.

Bottom rebound

According to Great Wisdom VIP, as of the close of January 23rd, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.53% to 2,770.98 points; The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.01% to 749.74 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.38% to 8596.28 points; The growth enterprise market index rose 1.24% to 1687.61 points.

On the disk, after several consecutive days of shocks, A shares in the sector ushered in a long-lost general increase. Under the first-class industry classification of Shenwan, 27 of the 31 sub-sectors are floating red, and only banks, commercial retail, food and beverage and textile and apparel have fallen slightly.

Among them, the media sector surged more than 3.5% throughout the day, the coal and computer sectors rose more than 2%, and communications, non-bank finance, real estate and national defense industries all rose more than 1%.

"On the whole, the quantity can shrink but the structural differentiation has decreased. Big tickets are stronger than small tickets, and blue chips are stronger than growth. Risk appetite increased slightly and market confidence was boosted, which was the main feature of Tuesday (January 23). " Zhaowei said.

For the rebound of the market, many interviewees mentioned the positive impact of the news in the capital market.

"The NPC attaches great importance to the capital market, and the market speculates that there may be some new policies on the capital market, which will boost the market sentiment." The chief investment officer of the above brokerage said.

Zhaowei also pointed out that the regular meeting of the National People’s Congress indicated that more powerful and effective measures should be taken to stabilize the market and confidence, and it was announced that the medium and long-term capital would enter the market in the next step. This is undoubtedly a heavy positive signal in the recent depressed capital market, which means that a powerful rescue policy will be introduced soon. Under the influence of positive news, the market bottomed out on Tuesday.

On January 22nd, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council presided over the the State Council executive meeting to listen to the report on the operation of the capital market and work considerations. The meeting stressed that it is necessary to further improve the basic system of the capital market, pay more attention to the dynamic balance of investment and financing, vigorously improve the quality and investment value of listed companies, increase the medium and long-term capital entering the market, and enhance the internal stability of the market. We should take more effective measures to stabilize the market and confidence.

On January 23rd, Yi Huiman, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of the CSRC, presided over the (enlarged) meeting of the Party Committee. The meeting stressed that efforts should be made to maintain the stable operation of the capital market. We will persist in striving for stability and promoting stability through progress, put the stable operation of the capital market in a more prominent position, and strive to stabilize the market and stabilize confidence. Vigorously improve the quality and investment value of listed companies, and build a valuation system of listed companies with China characteristics. Deepen the reform of the investment side, increase the intensity of medium and long-term capital entering the market, promote the dynamic balance of investment and financing, and continuously enhance the internal stability of the stock market.

Keep a positive attitude, there is still a rebound requirement on the technical side.

As the market rebounds, what will A shares do next?

"In the short term, the current mood of the market has reached the bottom, and the current position is extremely cost-effective. Therefore, there is no need to be pessimistic in this position in the market. " The chief investment officer of the aforementioned brokerage firm said.

Zhaowei also pointed out that although the rebound of the market on Tuesday (January 23rd) was still insufficient, it was because the pressure around 2863 was still relatively high, which required a time-space transformation process. At present, the market’s common expectation of confidence return route has gradually become clear, and the market has never fallen for more than five consecutive quarters. Next, investors can keep a positive attitude and wait for the introduction of policy tools for the current market.

Technically, zhaowei said that after the market opened lower on Tuesday (January 23), it fluctuated sharply around the previous closing point, gradually rose in the afternoon, and closed in red, showing a trend of price increase and volume decrease. All the moving averages were arranged short, and the volume and price of price increase and volume decrease deviated from the trend, and it will be repeated in short-term intraday trading.

"However, the market still deviates from the 5-day trend, which is technically oversold. In addition, the SKD indicator of the daily line continues to deviate from the bottom three times, and there is still a rebound requirement in the short-term session. Whether the 5-day line can be broken and whether the quantity can be released is the key. At the same time, the technical indicators of the time-sharing chart show that the 15-minute MACD indicator continues to strengthen, the 30-minute MACD indicator is golden, and there are rebound requirements in the short-term session. " Zhaowei pointed out.

Zhaowei further pointed out that, on the whole, there is still a demand for rebound in the short-term market, which is technically expected to challenge the pressure on the 5th line. Whether it can challenge and cross the 5th line and whether the quantity can be released is the key. If the quantity can be released again, 2724 points will be the stage low regardless of the ups and downs; If the quantity can be released effectively, 2724 points can not be confirmed as the stage low regardless of the ups and downs.

"At present, the point is low enough, and stabilization is something that can happen at any time." Another brokerage investment Gu said that there are three signals for the market to stop falling and stabilize. First, the form must be out of the reverse form, and it is the most basic condition to create a physical heavy-duty zhongyang line to reverse the heavy-duty zhongyin on Monday. Second, the market sentiment must be reversed. We can observe whether the position of the yellow and white lines is switched at the same time when the yellow and white lines are rising together on the time-sharing chart, and whether the yellow line is running above the white line (the increase of individual stocks exceeds the index). The third is to see if there is a leading sector with strong market influence, which can not only drive the index but also drive the market popularity. For example, brokers known as bull market engines are easy to activate the market and activate the Shanghai Composite Index once they start at a low level.

In terms of allocation, zhaowei suggested that investors should watch more and move less in operation, those who are light positions should wait and see, those who are heavy positions should adjust their position structure, pay attention to new energy sources and brokers on dips, and avoid junk stocks and stocks with high share prices that are at risk of making up for losses.